Now We Know What a Hunger Cliff Looks Like

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US in March 2020, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) responded swiftly, waiving school meal fees nationwide, waiving congregate eating requirements for school meals and summer food programs, and increasing SNAP benefits with emergency allotments (SNAP EA). SNAP EA, enacted by the Families First Coronavirus Response Act of 2020, gave all SNAP households the maximum benefit for their household size, for the duration of each state’s COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. The average monthly benefit per person increased 54% ($121 in February 2020 to $187 in April), according to administrative program participation data released by USDA. (I store a streamlined version of the full monthly SNAP data set, going back to October 1988, here, in Harvard’s DataVerse.)

The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023 required all states still issuing SNAP EA to stop after February 2023. Advocates warned that this would push low-income households over a hunger cliff: their SNAP benefits would drop precipitously, and many would not be aware that it was happening. Congress acted anyway. Now we have data to show the impact of the end of SNAP EA: families did indeed face a hunger cliff, and it was steep.

The average monthly SNAP benefit per person fell from $259 to $174 from February to April 2023. This translated to about $6 per person per day. Can you imagine feeding yourself with $6 each day? SNAP benefits before the pandemic were inadequate. SNAP EA brought benefits closer to what families actually need, but then the rug was pulled out from under them.

The blow would have been even worse if it had not been for the science-backed revision of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP), resulting in a 23% increase in the average SNAP benefit beginning in October 2021. The October 2022 cost of living adjustment (COLA) to SNAP benefits increased the average amount per person by another 12.5%. The October 2021 and 2022 increases are still in effect, though Project 2025—and the House GOP proposed Farm Bill—calls for reversing the 2021 TFP revision and prohibiting any future such science-based revisions. Monthly benefits prior to the 2021 revision were about $120, 36% lower than current benefits.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this would cut SNAP by $30 billion over the next ten years. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) put this in perspective:

“Starting in 2027, the proposed limitation would cut SNAP benefits for 40 million people, including 17 million children, 6 million older adults, and 4 million people with disabilities in a typical month, based on CBO’s estimates. This would be the largest SNAP cut in nearly 30 years and would grow over time as SNAP benefits became more and more inadequate.”

As horrific as the COVID-19 pandemic was, one silver lining was that it showed what happens when we give Americans the support they need to live in some comfort instead of struggling to stave off hunger and eviction. This was a glimpse of an America where we all thrive and our children are properly nourished. The food insecurity rate actually held steady in 2020 and 2021, during a deadly pandemic, before spiking 25% in 2022 and rising another 5% in 2023 as pandemic-era measures like SNAP EA were cut off.

We are in for a turbulent few years of attacks on the social and nutrition safety net. The ghoulish Project 2025 proposals are not inevitable. With advocacy and organizing, we can stave off the worst of them, as we did during the first Trump administration. Meanwhile, we must build on what we learned during the pandemic and imagine a better world for all of us down the road.